Is Andy Murray Going to Miss Wimbledon?

There's no official word yet but, I've snagged a few clues, so here goes...

I posted my 'Open Letter' to AndyMurrayNews.com and, although an official response was not forthcoming, there were some eye-opening comments by some of the forum regulars.

The main point made was that because Andy Murray is contracted to the major tournaments, there are very specific rules that must be followed when withdrawing.

That makes sense so I set out to try and find if there was in fact an official rule about this. The ATP official website provided me with a copy of the rule book - all 248 pages of it.

There are lots of rules regarding withdrawal of events, but these are all concerned with withdrawals being made 14 days BEFORE the event begins.

It wasn't until I got to the section on "Player Major Offenses" that I found anything that could restrict player comments on injuries.

Rule 7.04 - part 2, states:

"it is an obligation for ATP players, their coaches and family members to refrain from engaging in conduct contrary to the integrity of the game of tennis...

"public comments that one of the stated persons above knows, or should reasonably know, will harm the reputation or financial best interests of a tournament, player, sponsor, official or the ATP are expressly covered by this section.

"Violation of this Section shall subject the player to a fine of up to $100,000 and/or suspension from play in ATP or Challenger Series Tournaments for a period of up to three (3) years.

Is this the rule that prevents players from SPECULATING about a withdrawal before it happens. If Andy Murray was to say that his withdrawal from Wimbledon was probable, then would this harm the "financial best interests" of the tournament?

I'm sure it could be argued that news of a top player withdrawing from a tournament could result in fewer ticket sales.

I'm not an expert, so I can't say with certainty, but it seems to me that this would be a pretty good explanation why the player himself can't talk about withdrawing until it's a certainty.

Saying "I might", or "I probably won't" be playing, only to compete anyway, could be considered a breach of this rule.

Under this circumstances, I'm sure there would be no harm in making positive statements such as "I'm confident I can play" or "There's still a good chance", but this would be irresponsible if these comments weren' t warranted.

So, this leads to the inevitable conclusion that no news is BAD news.

If the recovery is going well, then there would be no harm in saying so.

If the recovery isn't going well, then saying ANYTHING along those lines prior to withdrawal could result in fines and/or suspension.

Is Andy Murray going to miss Wimbledon?

There's still time - but right now, if I had to make a prediction, I would say the evidence suggests that he will be watching, rather than playing.